StrongWare ® for Modelling with Spreadsheets

StrongWare ^® for Modelling with PC Spreadsheets

Introduction. You can appreciate the value of using your SCOTS spreadsheets for Strongware for modelling when you appreciate that you can enter event objects with numbers, calculations and relate them with strings of calculations.
You can download *COSMIC WISDOM pdf file
The main advantage of using Strongware methods is that, with simple rules for arranging and entering flow paths with logic symbols, you can use spreadsheets as smart flowcharts for decision-making.
The Strongware seven rules for modelling with spreadsheets are:
1.) Rows are for ongoing objects, columns are for temporary phases;
2.) Definitions of row objects, are entered in the leftmost column, initial conditions in the second-leftmost column, and final conditions or summaries for rows in the rightmost column.
3.) Definitions for columns are placed in the uppermost rows, including schedule times;
4.) Flow of activity (cause to effect or time ) is left to right, usually shown with an '>' character for horizontal and '/' or '\' for vertical characters. Where vertical and horizontal paths cross, horizontal is overlaid on vertical;
5.) Logic indicators, 'An' and 'Or", are placed before (left) for input and after (right) of objects for output to a gate character such as 'X' and above or below the flow paths, as appropriate;
6.) Objects that describe processes being controlled are placed below the objects that perform controlling and Success (desired) paths are placed above fault (undesired) paths;
7.) Object cells have text to left and numbers to right.You can printout your budgets, LiFlos, business plans, and system models and affix them to a display board or scroll.

As an example of a fault tree embedded into a system model of a typical garage or hangar or boat-house, click on *Fire.gif or *Fire.xls . Use your browser's BACK function to return to this page. You can see another example of a model in an adaptation of the OSHA Proces Safety Analysis block diagram in *FloBlok.

As an example, you can build a model with 27 column objects by 27 row objects, totalling over 700 objects. This size of model may be suitable for most medium size organizations or systems, including life phases. You can use 12 c.p.i. fonts with 4 columns per column object and 5 rows per row object.. If you figure using about five minutes for creating each object, then, if you fill in every object in the model, you'll spend about 70 hours, or about two weeks, creating your COSMIC You can print your model on a layout of about 95" ( 8 feet ) by 24" ( 2 feet ), using either banner 14" by 11" fanfold or sheets, taped together.
A sheet of newspaper can be used for mounting six letter-size sheets with two-sided tape. You can also use accordian-folded butcher paper for mounting multiple sheets, then you can double-fold it to fit into a file or briefcase.
/|\ /|\ /|\
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If you like to layout your actions for life and estate planning on a wall chart, then you can also use your PrsNLbl, LaPSLbl, or HazLbl reports. They're designed for printing on a sheet of "sticky" labels or with tractor feed, generally 1" ( or 15/16") * 2.5" ( or 3.5"). You can fold over the right-hand end to make a handy tab so you can remove them and replace them. You can use any suitable media for your wall chart, such as wall panelling, posterboard, chalkboard, or dry-erase board.
If you'd prefer to have something you can roll up like a scroll, then you can use a piece of butcher paper, a piece of oilcloth, or whatever suits your fancy. You can use any kind of marker for your paths. In many cases, you'll want to see the big picture, especially when a group of folks is studying it and thinking on their feet and going back and forth between the computer and the display.
Five case examples from the author's experience illustrate COSMIC's value.
The author planned for four children's overlapping college educations budgets.
An organization's hundreds of contracts experienced delays of half a year. As a TQM matter, the process was analyzed and a flow diagram was developed. The 25-foot long diagram was also displayed in the hallway to show the lengthy process. Several weeks were cut from the schedule.
A fault tree was developed for a remotely-controlled aircraft system. The complete tree was displayed in a hallway. Many of the project people consulted the tree, since, as one observer remarked, "It's the only way to see the whole system!" The program also used color-coded flowcharts for trouble-shooting.
The author displayed a fault tree of the flight control system of a robotic intelligence-gathering vehicle. The program manager asked if it could be used for reliability analysis - it could be and was modified.
The first flight of a chemical laser involved several operators, the laser, the ventilation and suppression system, and the aircraft. The author flow-charted 59 steps in the emergency procedures; the test was successful.

Further, the simple fact that spreadsheets can be communicated virtually universally and electronically is a great advantage over using specialized graphics files.
You can use the blank spreadsheets, *100.* as worksheets:
1.start with preliminary modelling, using your current existing lifeplan, organizational diagram, workplans, system flow chart, fault trees, or observation of activities; then
2. set up and enter data into your PrsNote, WorkPlan, HazBen, or LaPS database; then
3. re-iterate your added data into your model.
Common Stages for Modelling Personal LifePlans, TQM LaPS, and Safety HazMOST/ HazBen. Note: The example templates shown on this webpage are the word processing text templates that you can *Download To view examples of screens, click on the hotlinks for *__ Screen.As with the LaPS and HazBen stages for modelling and problem- solving described, you can create your COSMIC as follows. You can cross-check your models with your budgets.
a. Stage 1 - You can set up your Preliminary Model with 'System', 'Phases', 'Operations' with the Normal Operations, similar to the *Fire Screen spreadsheet model, with subsystems and sub-phases.
You can control configuration by creating a parts list using your Invntory.
You can cross-check your WorkPlan database to ensure all steps are included.
b. Stage 2 - Use your LLaPSSS or MicroSS translators for defining how your system is intended to operate as 'Real' or 'Desired'. The diagram below shows it in simplified schematic form.
| Real +----+ +----+ +----+ +----+ |Desired | A0 == A1 == A2 == A3 ============== A0*A1*A2*A3 +----+ +----+ +----+ +----+

c. Stage 3 - Use your ProceSS or MidiSS, noting that you'll likely need to use your model to see what the problem or hazard effects on your system are and your system dollars, quantity, and power flows. You can use paths to lead into subsequent phases and end events.
| Real | Problem| +----+ +---+ +----+ +----+ |Desired| Hazard | | A0 == A1 =x==> A2 =x===> A3 ==========> A3 | | +----+ +---+ \An +----+ \An +----+ | | | \ \=== HA3 ==================> HA3 | \ +----+ | | | \ +----+ +----+ | | | \==> HA2 =x===> A3 ==================> HA2*A3 +----+ \An +----+ | | | \=== HA3 ==================> HA2*HA3 +----+
d. Stage 4 - Use your LaPSSS or MiniSS to translate your data to your COSMIC so you can analyze and decide on the 'Solution Pro'/'Recommended action' and 'Solution Con'/'Recommended Action Effects' with a view to relating to your system.
Real Problem Pro Con +----+ +-----+ |Desird| Hazard |Action| Effect | A1 >=X===X==> A2 >================> A2 | | | +----+ \Or \An +-----+ | | | | \ \==> HA2 >=======================> HA2 | | \ +-----+ | | | | \ +-----+ | | | | \=x====> SA2 >================================> SA2 | \An +-----+ | | | | \====> HSA2 >=======================================> HSA2 +-----+ | | | |

e. Modelling with String Calculations. You can recall your BudTax model and how you managed your variable expense items by chain-linking calculations from one month to the next.
You can relate strings to phase timespans.
You can insert columns to define slack periods in strings in phases.
Likewise, you can use the date fields for setting up your schedule with the following procedure.
1. In each record, enter a start date of zero and the duration for the process of the record; Note: You can use your WorkPlan record TimeSum, in days, to define the duration.
2. After you translate to your model, then you can enter formulae for the scheme by cell identifier;
3. Re-enter the chain-linked start dates in the database record. As an example:
|------Record 1 ------| |------- Record 2 ----| |----- Record 3 -------| col. A col. B col. C col. E col. F col. G col. I col. J col. K As translated: sd1= 0 dur1=x ed1=x sd2=0 dur2=y ed2=y sd3=0 dur3=z ed3=z As formulated: sd1=0 dur1=x ed1=A+B=> sd2=C dur2=y ed2=E+F=> sd3=G dur3=z ed3=I+J

You can do the same with your times, PPVs, and / or Quantities, to model cash or production flow. You can create a model of your organization.

| | | | | | | | ł | Planning| Design| Mrkt'g | Proto | Test | Proc | Mfg | Sales ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Management | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Personnel | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Finance | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Testing | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Engineering| | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Production | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Facilities | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł Equipment | | | | | | | | ł ____________|_________|_______|________|_______|______|______|______|_______ł ł Plate 19 - Larger Systems ł Modeling System Management for Concurrent Development and Operation In the good old days, folks did things in a series pattern like an assembly line, that is, they envisioned, planned, designed, got investments, tested concepts, set up and manufactured, and sold their systems. Nowadays, to shorten the lead times to the street, they do "concurrent management", that is, they do all of the above in parallel. So, the question comes up, "How do you know what to do when?" The answer is not at all obvious, but we intuitively realize that some things must precede other things and that the basis must involve how much confidence you have in your planning. The whole game then becomes a matter of risk management. If you can imagine a flowchart spreadsheet diagram with activities strung out in sequences and layered in subsystems, then you can link the activities as to what depends on what else. If you could then determine your confidence in each activity, then you could link the confidence estimates to see how the end result might come out to be. Right off the bat, you'll need some way to describe qualitative "gut feelings" in quantitative terms. You can set up a grid with a column for qualitative descriptions that equate to probabilistic numbers. As an example, if you think and feel that a given activity is a locked-down, no-doubt certainty, you can equate that to, say, a quantitative planning estimate of, say, 0.90. If the activity has never been done before and the physics and money are certain, then you could assign it a value of, say, 0.50. If you're cutting new ground as regards something as variable as people's attitudes, then you might only estimate around, say, 0.15. You can then go back to your flowchart and insert the figures and link them together with your spreadsheet functions and formulae. You can then prioritize the activities so that you can minimize the risk as you go along. Obviously, you'll need to set up a program for testing and evaluating as you go along, so you'll have a good base for updating your estimates. Now it's also obvious that you'll need to set some "Go-No Go" criteria before the testing, so you'll know whether or not to proceed. The criteria will logically affect the end result, so it should be written in terms of the result. With this method, you'll know when to press on and when to fall back to re-plan or even go out of business, so to speak.

A condensed fault/decision tree for a computerized operational system model involving a potential fire and pollution in a garage or hangar is shown. ( A complete model with key data would show better on 11" x 14".)
| | | | | | | | | ROW| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J VvVV|------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 | /-->[ Present] 0.25 ]>->->->->[Detect]->->->->->->-> [ safe ] 3 |[ Personnel ]>-< OR +--------+ / 4 | \-->[ Absent ] 0.75 >->->->->->->->->>->->->->->\ 5 | +---------------+ / \ 6 | /--> Sealed | 0.95 >safe / \ 7 |[ Vehicle fuel]>-< OR |---------------| / \ 8 | \--> Leaking| 0.05 >-\ / \ 9 | +--------|------+ \ / [ Fumes] 0.10 ]>AND>[FIRE .0375] 10 | /--> Sealed | 0.95 | >OR<>[ Leaks]>\ / 11 |[ HAZMAT/WASTE]>-< OR |---------------| / \ / 12 | \--> Leaking| 0.05 >-/ [ Pollution ] / 13 | +---------------+ / 14 | /- > Sealed | 0.95 >safe / 15 |[ Electrical ]>-< OR |---------------| / 16 | \- > Exposed| 0.05 >->->->[Igniter]>->->->->->/ +--------+------+ Cell G-9 calculates the joint probability of cells D8 OR D12 as 0.05 + 0.05 = 0.10. Cell J-9 calculates the joint probability of cells D4 AND H9 AND D16 as 0.75 * 0.10 * 0.05 = 0.0375.
You can translate your safety hazard with recommended action: +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ |Use FixedSys font for paths | | |Refuelling or cleaning | | | | | | | 7.75 | 9.25 | 17.25 | +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ | | | | G6 H0000001 | | | | Autoplane AND hangar- |>>X>>|>>>X>>>| Vehicle stored OR | | | | garage AND persons AND | \Or| \An | maintained OR operated | 362.70 | 6480.00| | equipment | \ | \ | | | | | Operation OR Maintenance | \ | \>> Sparks AND HAZMAT cause | | | | OR Storage | \ | |cause fire OR pollution | | | | | \ | |Fire injures persons AND| | | | | \ | |burns vehicle & garage. | -109.30 | -99.00| | | \ | | PPV Des + Haz | 253.40 | 6381.00| | | \ | | PfV Des + Haz | 5530.34 | | +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ | | \>>|>>>X>>>|Seal HAZMATs.Ground/vent| | | | | | \An | drain / detect | 732.48 | 8640.00 | | | | \ | | | | | | | \>>>| Decrease probability to| | | | | | | rare. Lower Life Cycle | -15.68 | -8.00 | | | | | Cost. | | | | | | | PPV Startup | -21.45 | | | | | | PPV Act + Eft + Start | 695.35 | 8632.00| | | | | PFV Act + Eft + Start | 15175.58 | | +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+ | | | | PPV Gain Action-Hazard | 441.95 | 2251.00| | | | | PFV Gain Action-Hazard | 9645.24 | | +----------------------------+-----+-------+------------------------+----------+----------+

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